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EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017), released this morning presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets. This AEO is the first to have projections through 2050 in the AEO tables. The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most AEO2017 cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise. Exports are highest, and grow throughout the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, because favorable geology and technological developments result in the production of oil and natural gas at lower costs. The High Oil Price case provides favorable economic conditions for crude oil and natural gas producers while restraining domestic consumption, enabling the most rapid transition to net exporter status. In all cases but the High Oil and Gas Resource Technology case, which assumes substantial improvements in production technology and more favorable resource availability, U.S. energy production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports. The eight cases considered in AEO2017 incorporate different assumptions that reflect market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that affect energy markets. Other key findings include Energy consumption is consistent across all AEO cases, bounded by the High and Low Economic Growth cases. In the Reference case, total energy consumption increases 5% between 2016 and 2040. Because a significant portion of energy consumption is related to economic activity, energy consumption is projected to increase by approximately 11% from 2016 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and remain nearly flat in the Low Economic Growth Case. In all AEO cases, the electric power sector remains the largest consumer of primary energy. Energy production ranges from nearly flat in the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case to growth of nearly 50% over 2016–40 in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology Case. Unlike energy consumption, which varies less across AEO cases, projections of energy production vary widely. Production growth is dependent on technology, resource, and market conditions. Total energy production increases by more than 20% in the Reference case from 2016 through 2040, led by increases in crude oil and natural gas production. Energy related carbon dioxide emissions decline in most AEO cases, with the highest emissions projected in the No Clean Power Plan case. All AEO2017 cases except the No Clean Power Plan case assume the Clean Power Plan is implemented. To better focus EIA’s resources on expanding its understanding of rapidly evolving energy markets and to better represent new information in EIA’s models and publications, EIA has adopted a two-year release cycle for the AEO. Like AEO2015, AEO2017 is a shorter edition of the AEO. A full edition of the AEO, including Issues in Focus articles, in-depth updates on changes in Legislation and Regulations, and a larger set of side cases with browser tables and spreadsheets for all cases is produced every second year. In years between the full editions, a shorter edition provides a smaller number of cases summarized in annotated presentation slides with the standard set of AEO browser tables and spreadsheets containing the detailed modeling results. EIA will continue to update and refine the market dynamics and technologies in future AEOs, especially for the projections between 2040 and 2050. Projections from the AEO2017 Reference and alternative cases are available on the Annual Energy Outlook website.

The manufacture of steel and related products is an energy-intensive process. In 2015, the steel industry accounted for 1.5% of all industrial shipments but 6.1% of industrial delivered energy consumption. In EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case, energy use in the steel industry increases by 11% over 2015–40. Over the same period, the steel industry's energy intensity falls by 27%, compared with an 18% reduction in total industrial energy intensity. Several alternative cases examine drivers for further energy intensity reductions in the steel industry. Much of the change in energy intensity is attributed to the shift in steel production from primary to secondary (recycled) production. Primary production of steel typically uses a blast furnace to produce molten iron from iron ore, coking coal, and limestone. The molten iron is then converted into steel by a basic oxygen furnace. Secondary production of steel typically uses an electric arc furnace, with scrap providing the main input. In an electric arc furnace, scrap is melted using electricity. Natural gas can also supplement the melting process. Overall energy intensity of an electric arc furnace is significantly lower than the energy intensity of a basic oxygen furnace. The shift from using the basic oxygen furnace to the electric arc furnace since the early 1990s has contributed to the substantial reduction in energy intensity in the U.S. steel industry. According to calculations based on the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey and the World Steel Yearbook, from 1991 to 2010, the share of U.S. steel production using electric arc furnaces increased from 38% to 61%, while the energy intensity of crude steel production decreased by 37%. In the Reference case, the electric arc furnace share of crude steel production increases to 69% by 2040, further decreasing energy intensity. An Issues in Focus analysis in AEO2016 includes three alternative cases that model the effects of technology choice on energy intensity in the steel industry. Two alternative cases introduce incentives for demand-side efficiency: the Low Incentive and High Incentive cases, which use an assumed carbon fee to increase the price of energy inputs. Fuel prices are affected based on their carbon intensity. Compared to the Reference case, the price of metallurgical coal is 20% higher in the Low Incentive case and 56% higher in the High Incentive case by 2025. Natural gas, which is less carbon-intensive than coal, has lower price increases in 2025, at 10% and 38% higher in the Low and High Incentive cases, respectively, compared to the Reference case. The Energy-Efficient Technology case assumes the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies over time than in the AEO2016 Reference case but no demand-side efficiency incentives. Existing technologies are retired sooner, and new technologies have shorter lifespans than in the AEO2016 Reference case, providing more opportunities for deployment of energy-efficient technologies. Cumulative steel energy intensity declines are similar in the all cases except the Energy Efficient Technology case, where energy intensity declines 32% from 2015 to 2040. The low turnover rate of equipment, which typically lasts for decades, means that it takes years for a large increase in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace capacity to occur. As a result, the use of energy to produce steel will generally not respond quickly to price or innovations in technology. Although the relative use of basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnaces is generally similar across cases, the Energy Efficient Technology case includes greater adoption of more efficient post-furnace processing technologies, which further reduces energy intensity. The Low and High Incentive cases initially result in relatively larger declines in energy intensity, but by 2040 the differences between these cases and the Reference case are smaller. Steelmaking processes and technologies will continue to evolve in response to commodity prices for iron ore and scrap steel, investment in energy efficiency, product specification demand, environmental regulations, and fuel prices. Additional analysis of these factors is presented in the AEO2016 Issues in Focus.

Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) accounted for 22% of total U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production in 2015. In EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case, increases in NGPL account for a significant share of total increases in petroleum and other liquid fuels production over 2015–40. Because NGPL can be recovered from natural gas production streams or in association with crude oil production, future NGPL production depends on assumptions concerning the abundance of crude oil and natural gas resources and on the price differential between oil and natural gas. AEO2016 includes alternative cases that reflect these implications for U.S. NGPL production. In addition to the Reference case, the AEO2016 side cases include studies of the effects of higher or lower oil prices and higher or lower resource and technology assumptions. By 2030, the Brent crude oil spot price averages $49 per barrel (b) in the Low Oil Price case, $104/b in the Reference case, and $207/b in the High Oil Price case. The Resource and Technology cases produce the widest range of NGPL production and are principally defined by assumptions about the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil wells in the Lower 48 states, undiscovered resources in Alaska, and the offshore Lower 48 states. In the High and Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology cases, these recovery rates are 50% higher or 50% lower, respectively, than in the Reference case. Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50% higher or 50% lower than in the Reference case. The higher case also includes production from shale resources (a resource type often containing high levels of NGPL) not discovered in the other cases, where more limited exploration occurred. Because NGPL is produced during the processing of natural gas, either from natural gas wells or from gas associated with crude oil production, NGPL production levels are largely driven by the development of these resources. The revenue associated from extracting NGPL streams, such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, justify the cost of producing areas with NGPL-rich resources. When the price ratio between crude oil and natural gas is high, a producer is more likely to develop higher NGPL recovery formations because they can overcome the higher cost of processing these resources. When the spread is narrow, a producer is likely to avoid these costs and focus on developing natural gas production areas with low or no NGPL. Oil-to-gas price ratios are initially highest in the High Oil Price case, and, later in the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case. In these cases, NGPL production increases above Reference case levels. By 2040, NGPL production reaches 6.2 million b/d in the High Oil and Gas Resource case and 5.3 million b/d in the High Oil Price case, compared to 5.0 million b/d in the Reference case. NGPL is used both domestically and abroad. Since 2012, when NGPL production started to increase, the United States has built extensive capacity to use or export NGPL. Operators of petrochemical plants, which use NGPL to produce olefins for use in finished products like plastics, have announced plans to expand their facilities to take advantage of the rising availability of NGPL as a feedstock. Additional analysis on NGPL production is available in an Issues in Focus article as part of AEO2016.